Horse Racing
- Understanding Pace
Pace handicapping is about understanding
the energy dynamics of a race and developing a successful predictive
strategy. Knowing when and how a horse is likely to use his energy can
tell you remarkable things about a horserace before the horses ever
leave the gate.
Horses have a preferred method of running, and left to their own
devices, will usually run in the style that is comfortable for them.
Knowing how each horse in a race is likely to behave will give you
valuable information about the nature of the race, which horses are at
an advantage, and what the likely outcome will be.
Three Horse Types
Although some handicappers use more, horses are generally separated
into three major pace types: the frontrunner, mid-pack runner, and
later runner. Depending on the mix of pace types in a race, either
initial speed or energy conservation will prove to be the winning
approach. Determining which will be more important and which horse is
up to the challenge is the goal of pace analysis.
Front Runner
Early pace horses want to run at the head of the pack. Their
competitive nature is so prominent that if they are not able to run on
the lead, they will usually fall out of contention completely. The
more frontrunners in the race, the faster the early pace will be. This
places early pace horses at the risk of exhausting themselves before
the final stages of the race, giving the mid-pack and late horses an
opportunity to take advantage of their reserves of energy to pass
them.
Mid-Pack Horses
Mid-pack horses like to stay behind the leaders, but not too far back.
As the lead horses begin to tire, mid-pack horses have good position
and reserves of energy that they can use to gain and sustain the lead.
In fast paced races, mid-pack horses in good condition are always a
threat to the frontrunners.
A problem with the mid-pack horse is that, being close to the lead, he
is still vulnerable to over extending himself and falling prey to the
same problems as the frontrunners. Although this happens less often
than with frontrunners, itīs still a consideration in fast paced
races.
Late Runners
Later runners are the horses that bring up the rear. They are usually
in the bottom third of the pack. They are a poor bet in races where a
speed duel is unlikely. The major problem with this running type is
that in most races they are too far back when they finally make their
move. They are also logistically disadvantaged, having to come to the
front through ranks of other horses, or worse, on the outside.
The one scenario in which late running horses shine is when there is a
very fast early pace. When a race results in a pace war with such a
brutally fast pace that even the mid-pack horses are compromised, or
there are no quality mid-pack runners, the late runners are likely
candidates for the win. When this happens, the payouts are usually
huge.
Pace handicapping can be an important part of a winning strategy if
you take the time to evaluate the race as a whole. Multiple early pace
horses set the stage for fast paced races. The faster the pace, the
more likely an upset will occur, allowing a horse running off the lead
to gain the advantage. Predictive race analysis can tell you what
racing style to look for in your candidate, and what the potential
pitfalls are.
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